Climate scientists are calling for a phase-out of fossil fuels because humans are now pumping so much carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere that the '2-degree-C climate balloon' will burst otherwise, new studies show.
That 2-degree C climate balloon has a maximum capacity of less than 1,400 gigatonnes of CO2 total emissions from the year 2000 to 2050, Malte Meinshausen and colleagues report in the current issue of Nature. The European Union and others consider a global temperature rise of more than 2 degrees C as dangerous and potentially catastrophic. Temperatures are already 0.8 C warmer than the pre-industrial period.
The reality is that global emissions for the last seven years amounted to almost 250 gigatonnes of these long-lived greenhouse gases, meaning that the current and growing rates of fossil fuel emissions would burst the balloon in about 20 years – or less. Even if emissions are held to 1,400 gigatonnes maximum for the next 40 years, there is still a 50-percent probability of exceeding 2 degrees C, said Meinshausen, lead author of the study and climate researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
Indigenous peoples from around the world also called for a phase-out of fossil fuels at the conclusion of the first Indigenous Peoples' Global Summit on Climate Change in Anchorage, Alaska, that concluded last week.
"That call is well-supported by the evidence in this study," Meinshausen told IPS.
However, the world's future global carbon budget is likely less than 1,400 gigagtonnes. When other short-term warming gases like methane are included, then the total 'forcing', i.e. warming, could be 10 to 40 percent greater by the year 2100, said Meinshausen.
And some climate feedbacks - changes that will amplify or accelerate the warming - are absent from computer models. "Our modeling cannot account for emissions in methane from melting permafrost," he said.
Permafrost - permanently frozen bog and peatland - contains enormous amounts of organic carbon, perhaps enough to triple the amount currently in the atmosphere.
"Only a fast switch away from fossil fuels will give us a reasonable chance to avoid considerable warming," said Meinshausen. "We shouldn’t forget that a 2-degree C global mean warming would take us far beyond the natural temperature variations that life on Earth has experienced since we humans have been around."
This will be a serious challenge, he said, because there is plenty of carbon left in the ground. Proven reserves of oil, gas and coal represent four times the amount of carbon that would burst the 2-degree climate balloon. Burning just one quarter of what's left in the ground will bring humanity to the 50-50 point of tipping into dangerous climate change.
Delay is not an option when it comes to the fossil fuel phase-out, scientists stress. Even though a tonne of carbon is a tonne of carbon, whether released today or in 50 years' time, there is only so much the atmosphere can take before a 2-degree rise or more is inevitable, Meinshausen, Myles Allen of the University of Oxford and others write in a Nature Reports Climate Change commentary.
"Emitting CO2 more slowly buys time, perhaps vital time, but it will only achieve our ultimate goal in the context of a strategy for phasing out net CO2 emissions altogether," they conclude.
"Climate policy needs an exit strategy: as well as reducing carbon emissions now, we need a plan for phasing out net emissions entirely," Allen said in a release.
So what are the targets for the negotiators United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in the Copenhagen this December?
If negotiators heed the scientific evidence, then a new global agreement's goal will be to reduce global emissions by 50 percent compared to 1990 and do that by 2050. To achieve this, the current three-percent annual growth in carbon emissions must flatline by 2015 and start the decline by 3 percent per year, reports Martin Parry of the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London in another Nature study.
"If we do this it leaves an even chance of exceeding 2-degree C of warming," Parry and colleagues write.
If mitigation efforts are not substantial enough and emissions peak in the year 2025, then a 3-degree C rise in temperatures will likely occur. The damage from this level of warming could be substantial, placing billions more people at risk of water shortage and millions more at risk of coastal flooding. To avoid such damage will require massive investment in adaptation, such as improving water supply and storage, and protecting low-lying settlements from rising seas.
A final cautionary note: "The true sensitivity of the Earth system may well be higher, implying that any temperature-based target will become progressively harder to maintain as slower feedbacks kick in," write Gavin Schmidt, of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and David Archer of the University of Chicago in short article in Nature Wednesday.
"The bottom line? Dangerous change, even loosely defined, is going to be hard to avoid," they said.
Like an oil spill, it is far better and cheaper to avoid making the mess in the first place, they conclude
Showing posts with label Effects of Climate Change. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Effects of Climate Change. Show all posts
Sunday, May 3, 2009
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Mobility of Birds due to Climate Change
Researchers at the SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry (ESF) have documented that a variety of North American bird species are extending their breeding ranges to the north, adding to concerns about climate change, according to a study published by the journal Global Change Biology.
In a study published on the journal’s web site, the SUNY-ESF researchers state the change in the birds’ breeding ranges “provides compelling evidence that climate change is driving range shifts.”
“There are a wide spectrum of changes that are occurring and those changes are occurring in a relatively short amount of time. We’re not talking centuries, we’re talking decades,” said William Porter, an ESF faculty member and director of the college’s Adirondack Ecological Center,
Porter worked on the study with Ph.D. student Benjamin Zuckerberg and AEC staff educator Annie M. Woods.
“The most significant finding is that this is the first time in North America that we’re showing the repeating pattern that’s been shown before in Europe,” Woods said. “It’s the first time we’ve been able to replicate those European findings, using the same kind of study.
Focusing on 83 species of birds that have traditionally bred in New York state, the researchers compared data collected in the early 1980s with information gathered between 2000 and 2005. They discovered that many species had extended their range boundaries, some by as much as 40 miles.
“They are indeed moving northward in their range boundaries,” Zuckerberg said.
“But the real signal came out with some of the northerly species that are more common in Canada and the northern part of the U.S. Their southern range boundaries are actually moving northward as well, at a much faster clip.”
Among the species moving north are the Nashville warbler, a little bird with a yellow belly and a loudly musical two-part song, and the pine siskin, a common finch that resembles a sparrow. Both birds have traditionally been seen in Northern New York but are showing significant retractions in their southern range boundaries, Zuckerberg said.
Birds moving north from more southern areas include the red-bellied woodpecker, considered the most common woodpecker in the Southeastern United States, and the Carolina wren, whose “teakettle, teakettle, teakettle” song is surprisingly loud for a bird that weighs less than an ounce.
The study compared data collected during the state Department of Environmental Conservation’s Breeding Bird Atlas census, which engaged thousands of citizen volunteers to observe and report the birds they could identify. The first atlas was created between 1980 and 1985; the second was done between 2000 and 2005.
New York was the first state to complete two breeding bird atlases, Zuckerberg said, making it the only state that is able, at this point, to produce this kind of research.
Zuckerberg said similar changes were found in birds that breed in forests and those that inhabit grasslands, in both insectivores and omnivores, and even in new tropical migrants that are typically seen in Mexico and South America.
“What you begin to see is a systematic pattern of these species moving northward as we would predict with regional warming,” he said.
“New York citizens need to recognize that these changes are occurring,” Porter said. “Whether they are good or bad, whether they should be addressed, whether we should adapt to them, whether we should try to mitigate some of this, those are questions that really, rightfully, belong in the political arena.”
Woods said the innate mobility of birds made them an excellent animal to study in connection with adaptation to climate change.
In a study published on the journal’s web site, the SUNY-ESF researchers state the change in the birds’ breeding ranges “provides compelling evidence that climate change is driving range shifts.”
“There are a wide spectrum of changes that are occurring and those changes are occurring in a relatively short amount of time. We’re not talking centuries, we’re talking decades,” said William Porter, an ESF faculty member and director of the college’s Adirondack Ecological Center,
Porter worked on the study with Ph.D. student Benjamin Zuckerberg and AEC staff educator Annie M. Woods.
“The most significant finding is that this is the first time in North America that we’re showing the repeating pattern that’s been shown before in Europe,” Woods said. “It’s the first time we’ve been able to replicate those European findings, using the same kind of study.
Focusing on 83 species of birds that have traditionally bred in New York state, the researchers compared data collected in the early 1980s with information gathered between 2000 and 2005. They discovered that many species had extended their range boundaries, some by as much as 40 miles.
“They are indeed moving northward in their range boundaries,” Zuckerberg said.
“But the real signal came out with some of the northerly species that are more common in Canada and the northern part of the U.S. Their southern range boundaries are actually moving northward as well, at a much faster clip.”
Among the species moving north are the Nashville warbler, a little bird with a yellow belly and a loudly musical two-part song, and the pine siskin, a common finch that resembles a sparrow. Both birds have traditionally been seen in Northern New York but are showing significant retractions in their southern range boundaries, Zuckerberg said.
Birds moving north from more southern areas include the red-bellied woodpecker, considered the most common woodpecker in the Southeastern United States, and the Carolina wren, whose “teakettle, teakettle, teakettle” song is surprisingly loud for a bird that weighs less than an ounce.
The study compared data collected during the state Department of Environmental Conservation’s Breeding Bird Atlas census, which engaged thousands of citizen volunteers to observe and report the birds they could identify. The first atlas was created between 1980 and 1985; the second was done between 2000 and 2005.
New York was the first state to complete two breeding bird atlases, Zuckerberg said, making it the only state that is able, at this point, to produce this kind of research.
Zuckerberg said similar changes were found in birds that breed in forests and those that inhabit grasslands, in both insectivores and omnivores, and even in new tropical migrants that are typically seen in Mexico and South America.
“What you begin to see is a systematic pattern of these species moving northward as we would predict with regional warming,” he said.
“New York citizens need to recognize that these changes are occurring,” Porter said. “Whether they are good or bad, whether they should be addressed, whether we should adapt to them, whether we should try to mitigate some of this, those are questions that really, rightfully, belong in the political arena.”
Woods said the innate mobility of birds made them an excellent animal to study in connection with adaptation to climate change.
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Effects of Climate Change on Water Cycle
Climate change is having an impact on the water cycle, raising the issue of whether we should be investing in adapting to these impacts or focusing on more pressing water resource issues, such as providing water and sanitation for increasing populations? If investment in adapting to climate change is a priority, then is it best to invest in protecting natural ecosystems or developing engineered infrastructure?
The traditional way of handling extreme events such as floods and droughts, with engineering works should be complemented with the ecosystems approach which integrates the management of land and water that promotes conservation and sustainable use in an equitable way”, says Dr. Max Campos, Review Editor for the Latin American Chapter for IPCC Impacts and Adaptation Report .
“Climate change is indeed an important issue, but it needs to be seen in context of the many other global challenges affecting water resources such as population growth, urbanization and land use change. Adaptation is vital – but we need to adapt to the full range of factors that are stressing water resources, and not focus on human-forced climate change to the exclusion of everything else”, says Oliver Brown from the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD).
“It should be a must for vulnerable communities whether in the developed or developing world to ensure that their development ambitions are prepared for climate change. Adaptation should not be limited to the rich”, said Dr. Henk Van Schaik, Deputy Programme Coordinator UNESCO-IHE. He argued that vulnerable communities in the developed world are preparing and investing to protect their societies, economies and environments to the impacts of climate change. This is not so in transition economies nor in developing countries.
Going beyond the issue of investment in pressing development issues or adaptation measures, is the question of looking at natural versus engineered solutions.
“Conventional approaches to climate change adaptation range from water conservation and efficient use to new operational techonologies”, says Dr Mark Smith, Head of the IUCN Water Programme. “Dams and reservoirs are still considered as the most effective structural means of risk management. But we need to start thinking of the environment as infrastructure for adaptation as well. Health and intact river basins, wetlands and floodplains make us less vulnerable to climate change. Lowering risk is a good reason for investing in watersheds and the environment.”
The traditional way of handling extreme events such as floods and droughts, with engineering works should be complemented with the ecosystems approach which integrates the management of land and water that promotes conservation and sustainable use in an equitable way”, says Dr. Max Campos, Review Editor for the Latin American Chapter for IPCC Impacts and Adaptation Report .
“Climate change is indeed an important issue, but it needs to be seen in context of the many other global challenges affecting water resources such as population growth, urbanization and land use change. Adaptation is vital – but we need to adapt to the full range of factors that are stressing water resources, and not focus on human-forced climate change to the exclusion of everything else”, says Oliver Brown from the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD).
“It should be a must for vulnerable communities whether in the developed or developing world to ensure that their development ambitions are prepared for climate change. Adaptation should not be limited to the rich”, said Dr. Henk Van Schaik, Deputy Programme Coordinator UNESCO-IHE. He argued that vulnerable communities in the developed world are preparing and investing to protect their societies, economies and environments to the impacts of climate change. This is not so in transition economies nor in developing countries.
Going beyond the issue of investment in pressing development issues or adaptation measures, is the question of looking at natural versus engineered solutions.
“Conventional approaches to climate change adaptation range from water conservation and efficient use to new operational techonologies”, says Dr Mark Smith, Head of the IUCN Water Programme. “Dams and reservoirs are still considered as the most effective structural means of risk management. But we need to start thinking of the environment as infrastructure for adaptation as well. Health and intact river basins, wetlands and floodplains make us less vulnerable to climate change. Lowering risk is a good reason for investing in watersheds and the environment.”
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